...Nicholas near dissipation...

...Based on 1745 UTC images...

Although these forecasts are verified as reliable, refer to the National Hurricane Center for official forecasts, watches, and warnings.

Nicholas is now nothing more than a swirl of clouds, with some convection to the southwest of the broadening center of circulation. QuikSCAT from earlier this morning showed 35kts, but this was isolated, and I am not tempted to believe this as an accurate representation of the storm's intensity. The LLC is struggling to stay alive under shear, and this afternoon, looks very broad and poorly organized. Current motion is about 310 to 320 degrees, based on visible images, and this will be put into place as Nicholas moves north along a trough while it dies and merges with the larger system in the next 24 hours. Initial intensity is set at 30kts, based on QuikSCAT, but this is located well away from the actual center.

NOW 19.4N 54.7W 30KTS
12HR 20.4N 55.2W 25KTS
24HR 21.6N 55.7W 25KTS...DISSIPATING
36HR DISSIPATED

Powell

...Nicholas fighting...

...Based on 0145 UTC images...

Latest satellite estimates continue to support tropical storm intensity. After having an exposed center this afternoon, convection has rapidly fired back over the LLC of the storm, and I maintain a tropical storm for this forecast. Shear remains 10kts to 15kts, but we have seen many such bursts in the past several days. I will set initial intensity at 35kts; although, I do not expect this to last much longer as Nicholas continues to endure shear.

I will allow for continued weakening, assuming that the convection forming is just another phase, which seems likely, considering that shear values remain constant, and this pattern has been seen consistently in the past few days. The center of circulation is actually completely under convection, but so it was yesterday in the afternoon, and the subsequent appearance was a swirl of clouds this afternoon. For consistency with this, I will return to my conservative state of being in forecasting and allow this---somewhat. Rather than actually dissipating the system, I merge it with the larger extratropical system to the northeast in 48 hours. Track forecast is simply a blend of model guidance and allows for the much anticipated northward turn in the next 24 hours, in response to a trough now near 29N 59W.

NOW 18.4N 49.8W 35KTS
12HR 18.7N 51.2W 35KTS
24HR 19.8N 52.9W 30KTS
36HR 21.7N 54.0W 30KTS
48HR 25.0N 55.0W...MERGED WITH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM

Powell

...Nicholas looks ragged...

...Based on 0115 UTC images...

Although these forecasts are verified as reliable, refer to the National Hurricane Center for official forecasts, watches, and warnings.

Latest satellite estimates are 3.0, for 45kts, and I will maintain this for this forecast since convection remains to the west of the system. No new QuikSCAT images are available to aid for initial intensity. I don't want to be fooled by evening infrared images that do not show a center of circulation, since the center is only visible on visible satellite; therefore, I will assume that the center remains west of the main convection, as Nicholas looks lopsided on satellite. I will thus maintain intensity at 45kts.

Model guidance is in much agreement that Nicholas will turn to the north between 52W and 55W. A trough immediately north of Nicholas is stationary, and Nicholas is caught in very weak steering currents. Some ridging will likely occur over the next 48 hours, and NOGAPS continues to discount this, as does BAMM. I tend to lean toward the right of guidance, but the models to the right take Nicholas west initially then northward, whereas, the forecast here tends to take the storm northward slowly then northwestward in front of the weak ridge, then being caught in 72 hours and turned to the north as agreed on unanimously by guidance. The forecast will be shifted to the right a little as the center has slipped to the northeast, but the reasoning of the forecast, and shape of the track will remain nearly the same.

Intensity forecast calls for little change in strength for 72 hours, as shear values will remain the same, so convection should remain. Afterward, shear values will likely slowly increase, and I will correspond closely with SHIPS, but bringing Nicholas to a 35kt tropical storm in 96 hours, assuming that the LLC does not somehow reform, which would be uncharacteristic of the storm based on its history. I will maintain this intensity through 120 hours as the system corresponds with the approaching trough, which remains well into the interior US.

NOW 18.0N 47.8W 45KTS
12HR 18.8N 48.0W 45KTS
24HR 19.5N 48.6W 40KTS
36HR 20.4N 49.7W 40KTS
48HR 21.1N 50.9W 40KTS
72HR 22.9N 52.9W 40KTS
96HR 25.6N 54.0W 35KTS
120HR 28.9N 54.6W 35KTS

Powell

...Nicholas moving slowly with varying strength...

...Based on 1515 UTC images...

Although these forecasts are verified as reliable, refer to the National Hurricane Center for official forecasts, watches, and warnings.

Nicholas underwent a burst of convection this morning, but as in the past several days, these storms have been sheared to the east. This is causing brief boosts in intensity followed by corresponding dips. Early morning QuikSCAT showed a broad area of low pressure, and winds were not placed higher than 45kts. Satellite estimates vary from 45 to 55kts to contrast this, and if it were a few hours ago, I would have bumped intensity up, but due to the past few hours when the center has begun to become exposed, I will maintain intensity at 45kts.

The intensity forecast is really based on the logic of the track forecast--i.e. how much shear will be introduced into the storm's environment. Shear values are only 10kts, and the storm cannot stay together. If stronger shear is introduced, Nicholas would likely dissipate. Model guidance unianimously agrees that the trough now near 30N 69W, and extending southwest to northeast will move northeast very soon, and will not affect Nicholas. These models bring Nicholas to the north between 60 and 84 hours. NOGAPS, takes Nicholas northward very early in the period--almost immediately, for what reason I do not know. In fact, every model shows ridging taking place in the Eastern and Central Atlantic, so it is only reasonable to forecast a general northwestward movement for at least 48 hours--if the storm begins to move soon. Otherwise, the track will have to be pushed farther and farther to the right. I do have one reservation with this however. A low pressure roughly near 40N 30W is moving southwestward toward the weak area of high pressure. Models DATA LOST