Tropical Storm Gert Forecast 4
4:25PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2005

...Gert nears Mexico as a weak tropical storm...

Although these forecasts appear statistically reliable, always first consult and consider official products released by the National Hurricane Center. This forecast is not associated with any other professional or non-professional source of information except nencweather.com

Satellite images indicate that Gert has come nearer to the Mexican shoreline, and is gaining about a tenth of a degree of longitude per hour. This would bring Gert inland later this evening. Nothing has changed in the guidance for this relatively easy track forecast, and the intensity is set at 35kts based on satellite estimates. Gert could intensify to a 40kt tropical storm before landfall in some of the widespread thunderstorms near and around the center. The forecast is a little slower than the previous forecast, and dissipates Gert at 36 hours over inland Mexico.

INIT 21.4N 96.8W 35KTS
12HR 21.8N 98.2W 30KTS...INLAND
24HR 22.1N 99.7W 20KTS...INLAND/DISSIPATING
36HR...DISSIPATED

Powell

This is the final forecast that will be issued for Tropical Storm Gert. Refer to the National Hurricane Center for further updates, advisories, and forecasts.



Tropical Storm Gert Forecast 3
11:00AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2005

...The seventh named storm of the season has formed in July in the Bay of Campeche and is disorganized...

Although these forecasts appear statistically reliable, always first consult and consider official products released by the National Hurricane Center. This forecast is not associated with any other professional or non-professional source of information except nencweather.com

Satellite estimates on the system in the Bay of Campeche have risen, and despite the lack of organization in the center of circulation, winds in scattered thunderstorm activity about the system merit upgrading the storm to tropical storm status. Based on satellite estimate of 35kts, and surface observations, the intensity is set at 35kts, making Gert the seventh named storm of the season on the 24th of July. The forecast is fairly simple. Gert has moved faster than allowed by the previous forecast, which was suggested before, but in any event, the tropical storm should make landfall later today, possibly as a 40kt tropical storm. The forecast agrees with model guidance, but is on the north side of the tightly clustered (through 24 hours) suite as the broad center may be moving a little north of suggested direction. In any event, the center is disorganized and broad, and tropical storm force winds may be found in any of the thunderstorms near the center.

The forecast dissipates Gert over Mexico at 36 hours.

INIT 21.2N 96.2W 35KTS
12HR 21.9N 98.2W 35KTS...INLAND
24HR 22.3N 100.2W 25KTS...INLAND/DISSIPATING
36HR...DISSIPATED

Powell



Tropical Depression Seven Forecast 2
10:15PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2005

...Depression continues west-northwestward...

Although these forecasts appear statistically reliable, always first consult and consider official products released by the National Hurricane Center. This forecast is not associated with any other professional or non-professional source of information except nencweather.com

T-numbers for this evening are at 1.0, and aircraft from this afternoon did not find anything to support an intensity any greater than 25kts, as pressures remain above 1010mb. Nighttime satellite imagery shows a pretty ragged system, with lots of scattered convection, also indicating that the system is not very well organized. The center of circulation also remains broad. Nonetheless, the depression will remain under a low-shear environment, and with very warm SSTs over the region. SHIPS guidance carries the system to tropical storm status within 24 hours, and brings it to 35 to 40kts before landfall. The track forecast is a little slower than the model guidance, but still brings the storm ashore in just after 24 hours. The main constraint on the intensity forecast is landfalling, so I will allow for a 40kt tropical storm prior to landfall, assuming that the depression remains over water for a little longer than forecasted or has a burst of convection near the center--with a better-defined center. Still, this may be a little generous.

INIT 19.6N 93.8W 25KTS
12HR 20.2N 95.3W 30KTS
24HR 20.8N 96.8W 40KTS
36HR 21.3N 98.6W 30KTS...INLAND
48HR 21.8N 100.4W 20KTS...INLAND/DISSIPATING
72HR...DISSIPATED

Powell



Tropical Depression Seven Forecast 1
4:00PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2005

...Another tropical depression forms, this time in the Bay of Campeche...

Although these forecasts appear statistically reliable, always first consult and consider official products released by the National Hurricane Center. This forecast is not associated with any other professional or non-professional source of information except nencweather.com

An aircraft is currently in the depression gathering data. The low level center has gained some convection this afternoon; although, this does remain limited. Certainly, the depression is not very strong, and preliminary reports coming in from the region are showing fairly high surface pressure. Additionally, the LLC appears quite broad on visible imagery. Intensity is set at 25kts.

Shear in the immediate vicinity of the center of circulation is not very high; however, some higher shear exists to the west of the system near mainland Mexico, and some outflow to the west of the center indicates that this shear might be moderate; estimates are at 15 to 20kts right now. For the time being, however, that shear to the west of the center may actually help the storm with its outflow, and induce some intensification. It seems as if this is one of the cases where the intensity is quite dependent on the track, more specifically forward speed in this case. The depression is moving slowly west-northwestward right now. Model guidance agrees on the forward speed and direction for the next 24 hours, bringing the storm inland over east-central portions of Mexico on the Bay of Campeche. Due to the current motion, I will not move quite as quickly as model guidance, but will bring the system ashore within 36 hours. As such, SSTs are warm in the region, and shear is expected to remain favorable; therefore, I allow for intensification into a weak tropical storm before landfall, forecasting 40kts at landfall, should the track forecast verify. If the storm moves more quickly, or farther south, it would probably be weaker at landfall. And considering the very broad center, some convection would have to pop up at some point, and the LLC would have to tighten to get up to even 40kts. At the same time, 24 hours seems ample time to at least reach 35kts if we witness a convection burst nearer a more well-defined center. Afterward, the forecast weakens the storm over inland Mexico, dissipating in within 72 hours.

INIT 19.5N 93.0W 25KTS
12HR 20.1N 94.4W 30KTS
24HR 21.0N 96.3W 35KTS
36HR 21.8N 98.4W 30KTS...INLAND
48HR 22.3N 100.9W 20KTS...INLAND
72HR...DISSIPATED

Powell