...Very unhealthy tropical depression recenters to the north...

Although these forecasts appear statistically reliable, always first consult and consider official products released by the National Hurricane Center. This forecast is not associated with any other professional or non-professional source of information except nencweather.com

Satellite estimates remain at 2.0, and even 2.5 from SAB; however, the system looks very sickly on satellite images and consists of mostly low-level clouds with an occasional burst of convection near the center of circulation. Initial intensity is set at 30kts. A few upper level cirrus clouds to the north of the center persist; however, deep convection is basically nonexistent. The system is currently in about 20kts of vertical shear from the west, and as the system moves northward as low pressure to the north retreats northeastward, it will face vertical shear of up to 40 to 50kts, and the forecast allows for the depression to dissipate without becoming a tropical storm. SHIPS does allow for the system to peak at 40kts before weakening again late in the forecast period past 25N, where the center would reach lesser shear but cooler SSTs at about 25C. The forecast dissipates the system within 96 hours, and this could certainly occur sooner as vertical shear values become very strong. Certainly, the depression will remain little more than a swirl of clouds or a center with displaced convection. The track forecast is shifted to the right of the previous forecast initially since the depression has recentered farther to the north; however, it is to the left after about 36 hours, as more of a northwestward component is predicted. Track reasoning is the same; a low pressure system over the subtropical eastern Atlantic will move northeastward allowing for the depression to move northward as an anticyclone builds off the west coast of Africa. Model guidance is in fair agreeance, taking the system north-northwestward, and then northward and northeastward if the storm survives. The forecast dissipates the system before the storm turns northeastward however; although if remnants remain, they may turn after three to four days. For the sake of verification, I include points at 96 and 120 hours; however, dissipation is forecasted near 72 hours.

INIT 14.3N 34.0W 30KTS
12HR 15.1N 34.5W 30KTS
24HR 16.3N 35.0W 30KTS
36HR 17.9N 35.6W 30KTS
48HR 20.1N 36.4W 25KTS
72HR 23.6N 37.3W 25KTS...DISSIPATING
96HR 27.0N 37.1W 20KTS...DISSIPATING
120HR 29.3N 35.4W 20KTS...DISSIPATING

Powell

...A tropical depression has formed in the far eastern Atlantic...

Although these forecasts appear statistically reliable, always first consult and consider official products released by the National Hurricane Center. This forecast is not associated with any other professional or non-professional source of information except nencweather.com

Satellite intensity estimates are 1.5 from SAB, corresponding from 25kts, and a new QuikSCAT pass will probably give aonther intensity estimate in a few hours. Outflow is quite healthy, and the center of circulation is well embedded within the deepest convection. Vertical shear is currently about 10kts, not unfavorable for development; however, some fairly stiff westerly winds sit to the north and west of the depression. Vertical shear immediately north of the system ranges up to 50-60kts. Any intensification must be done in the short-term, and SHIPS brings the depression to tropical storm intensity in 24 hours. I will allow for the system to develop into a tropical storm in the next 24 hours, as weak steering currents should keep the center south of the heaviest shear for at least one day. After about 36 hours, conditions will become unfavorable for strengthening, and I level off the intensity and maintain a weak tropical storm; however, I would certainly not be surprised to see the system weaken back to a tropical depression and potentially dissipate by the end of the forecast period. Assuming the system does survive, sea surface temperatures drop from 28C at its current position to about 25-26C past 25N, and given marginally favorable conditions for development at best, the forecast brings the system northward as a weak tropical storm by the end of the forecast period.

Model guidance is rather spread out on where to take the depression, and the current motion is roughly to the west at about 2kts. Ridging is absent to the north of the depression; therefore, steering currents are very weak. A large low pressure system to the north of the depression will move northeastward over the next day or so; this will allow for a northwestward motion after 24 to 48 hours. Little motion is forecasted through the next 24 hours, followed by a northwestward motion, and eventually a northward motion around a developing anticyclone over the far eastern Atlantic off the African coast. The track forecast after 72 hours is quite uncertain, but assuming that some westward drift will occur over the next day or so, the forecast is on the left side of the CONU solution, and closest to the GFDL track, taking the storm past 35W, and past 25N by 120 hours. Some model guidance shows a bend back to the west toward the end of the forecast period as a new ridge will form over the northeastern Atlantic--this pattern is seen a bit more in models that maintain a weaker system, so the forecast will allow for a slight motion more northwestward toward the very end of the period. Of course, several uncertain variables remain in this forecast, and a great deal of uncertainty remains.

INIT 11.8N 32.9W 25KTS
12HR 12.0N 33.3W 30KTS
24HR 12.5N 33.9W 35KTS
36HR 13.8N 34.6W 40KTS
48HR 15.2N 35.2W 40KTS
72HR 19.4N 36.2W 35KTS
96HR 23.1N 36.2W 35KTS
120HR 26.1N 36.8W 40KTS

Powell