...Vince beginning to weaken; poised to hit Portugal...
Although these forecasts appear statistically reliable, always first consult and consider official products released by the National Hurricane Center. This forecast is not associated with any other professional or non-professional source of information except nencweather.com
Satellite intensity estimates still support a hurricane; however, Vince is moving over cooler waters and the eye is becoming less defined. Based on the probably subtropical characteristics of Vince, I will not initialize at hurricane intensity merely on satellite appearance. Initial intensity is set at 55kts. Vince will continue to move over cooler waters as it accelerates toward the Iberian Peninsula over the next couple of days. Additionally, currently low shear values of about 10kts will increase over the next 48 hours as a frontal boundary approaches Vince from the northwest. Together, these two factors should slightly weaken the system, which may very well be subtropical or extratropical by the time it reaches Europe. Model guidance agrees on a landfall somewhere in Portugal, and the track forecast is a little to the right of the previous forecast, taking the storm inland at about 36 hours, as it accelerates northeastward ahead of the incoming front. Vince should certainly become extratropical within the next 48 hours as it merges with the larger extratropical system.
Note that this forecast track brings Vince onshore very near Lisbon.
INIT 34.5N 17.7W 55KTS
12HR 35.6N 15.7W 50KTS
24HR 37.8N 11.9W 45KTS
36HR 40.0N 7.3W 35KTS...INLAND/EXTRATROPICAL
48HR...MERGED
Powell
...2005 is the most active hurricane season on record as Vince becomes the twenty-second tropical cyclone of the season over the far northeastern Atlantic...
Although these forecasts appear statistically reliable, always first consult and consider official products released by the National Hurricane Center. This forecast is not associated with any other professional or non-professional source of information except nencweather.com
Satellite images have continued to indicate that the previously non-tropical low located about halfway between the Azores and the Canary Islands has become better organized. Microwave images from this morning suggest that the system has at least partially become a warm-core cyclone; however, the system has formed over cool waters of about 24C. Additionally, estimated pressure remains relatively high; however, a well-defined eye has formed. Such observations would support a subtropical cyclone. However, given the transition from the past two days, and the apparent small and weak warm core at the center, the system is upgraded to a tropical storm--the twentieth of the season, Vince. This is also the twenty-second tropical cyclone of the season, supposing that Tropical Depressions Ten and Twelve were indeed two separate entities. This would make 2005 the most active hurricane season on record, surpassing 1933 and 1995 for 21 tropical cyclones. Additionally, Vince appears to be the most northeasterly forming storm ever recorded in the Atlantic basin. T-numbers from SAB are 4.0, which would support a hurricane; however, given the partially subtropical nature of the system, I would lean more toward a 3.5 objective estimate. The 18Z model suite initiates at 60kts; I will remain a bit lower and place initial intensity at 55kts. Surface observations from the Madeira Islands to the east of Vince support at least a 55kt intensity, and minimum estimated pressure has dropped to nearly 990mb as well. Obviously, sea surface temperatures are not really all too conducive for tropical development; however, it is possible that Vince may reach hurricane status over the next few hours if it is indeed currently a strong tropical storm. SHIPS brings the system to near hurricane intensity in the next day or so as Vince will remain in a low-shear environment. Vince is currently in an area of weak steering currents and vertical shear is quite low. As such, the only factor that will work against the storm is low sea surface temperatures, and assuming a subtropical component to the system, I moreorless maintain intensity through 24 hours, and afterward indicate a little weakening as the storm continues to move over cooler waters.
The track forecast is a bit complex. Vince will remain in generally weak steering currents for the next few days as it continues generally northeastward. Flow from a trough to the northwest over the far north Atlantic will increase over the next 48 hours or so as the boundary approaches Vince, and the track forecast increases the storm's speed over the next few days. Vince should become extratropical and absorbed in the next two days as the frontal boundary moves across the Atlantic. It is certainly possible that some portion of Vince may directly impact the Iberian Peninsula in three or four days.
INIT 34.1N 18.8W 55KTS
12HR 34.4N 18.1W 60KTS
24HR 35.8N 15.9W 55KTS
36HR 38.2N 13.3W 50KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR 41.0N 10.6W 45KTS...EXTRATROPICAL/MERGED
Powell