Although these forecasts appear statistically reliable, always first consult and consider official products released by the National Hurricane Center. This forecast is not associated with any other professional or non-professional source of information except nencweather.com
Chris has shown signs of restricted outflow this evening, and aircraft has indicated a weakened Chris with maximum winds of 45 to 50kts. For consistency, 50kts is the initial intensity for this forecast. Vertical shear is not that strong, but apparently, flow from the northwest is strong enough to prevent adequate outflow to sustain a strong storm, so this forecast backs off on making Chris a hurricane so quickly. Given possible land interaction, it is wise to examine the track forecast for its effects on future intensity. Model guidance has diverged a little at 00Z and 18Z, and a west-northwestward motion is agreed upon toward the end of the forecast period. A mid to upper-level low over the central Bahamas persists and is forecasted by global models to move westward and weaken. Ridging to the north will build in and guide Chris to the west. 18Z GFDL has trouble initializing and indicates a ragged track. Since guidance is shifted to the right a little, the forecast track is shifted to the right as well, and I will include a more visible northward component to the motion at the end of the forecast period. This keeps the storm over Cuba, but again, a slight deviation from the forecast track could put the storm over water. Current infrared imaged indicate that Chris may be making more of a westward heading in the past few hours, but nighttime satellite often proves to be inconclusive, and we will have to wait until morning to be sure of the circulation center's motion. UKMET is the farthest north of the GUNA ensemble, and GFS and NOGAPS are very close or over Cuba. Interestingly, clouds a few hundred miles west of Chris are moving westward to even west-southwestward. The forecast allows a general westward motion over the next 2 days, followed by a slight northward component to the track, taking the center just north of the Caribbean islands and into Cuba. Since Chris is having trouble with light shear, the intensity forecast calls for only slow strengthening, and given the possible land interaction toward the end of the forecast period, I do not show additional intensification, but if Chris remains over water, it will likely strengthen at least some. The forecast brings Chris to 70kts at 72 hours and is a blend largely of NOGAPS and GFS. If the forecast verifies, Chris would weaken over mountainous terrain, but given the large room for error late, I maintain 70kts through 120 hours to be safe. It is also possible that the center could interact with Hispaniola, and this is shown at 48 and 72 hours by little strenghtening. SHIPS brings Chris to only 60kts with land interaction keeping the storm weak early. The initial position is a bit difficult to pinpoint this evening, and is a compromise of most recent satellite estimated positions.
INIT 19.6N 64.7W 50KTS
12HR 19.8N 66.1W 50KTS
24HR 20.0N 67.7W 55KTS
36HR 20.0N 69.5W 65KTS
48HR 20.1N 71.6W 65KTS
72HR 21.0N 75.9W 70KTS...SOUTHEASTERN CUBA
96HR 22.1N 79.7W 70KTS...CENTRAL CUBA
120HR 23.5N 84.0W 70KTS...SOUTHEASTERN GOM
Powell
Although these forecasts appear statistically reliable, always first consult and consider official products released by the National Hurricane Center. This forecast is not associated with any other professional or non-professional source of information except nencweather.com
Chris has shown signs of increased organization this morning. Banding and outflow features have improved as shear has decreased over the storm; however, northerly shear remains evident on the storm. It is possible that Chris could soon become a hurricane. The storm will continue moving into an area of lower vertical shear to the west. Additionally, an upper level low near 25N 76W is forecasted by global models to move westward and weaken. As such, it is quite likely that Chris will have somewhat favorable conditions to contend with as it moves westward. The forecast calls for a minimal hurricane within 24 hours. As ridging builds in to the north and steers Chris more westward later in the forecast period, conditions may become more favorable for development, and the main factor inhibiting intensification will become land interaction. Tropical guidance steers the storm westward and west-southwestward after 24 to 36 hours, and GFDL--as it did correctly several times last year--takes the storm west-southwestward. After 48 hours, the intensity forecast becomes dependent on the track. The intensity is 75kts at 48 hours. Ridging will build in behind the dying upper level low over the Bahamas, with the wildcard remaining how strong the ridging will become. To the north, very stiff zonal flow is in place, so it would make sense for a generally westward motion to take place later in the forecast period, with a west-northwestward motion perhaps as late as 72 hours. The track forecast is a blend of dynamic models, and eventually takes Chris due westward by the end of the forecast period. This brings the center into Cuba in 4 to 5 days, but the potential error at 96 to 120 hours easily leaves south Florida and much of the Bahamas in the picture. SHIPS only brings Chris to 66kts in 5 days. I will compromise with this and what appears to be favorable conditions, and bring the storm to 90kts at 96 hours. Although the track takes Chris over mountainous terrain in Cuba, only a small deviation from the forecast track will keep Chris over water. As such, I keep intensity at 90kts for 120 hours.
INIT 19.3N 63.7W 55KTS
12HR 19.9N 65.1W 60KTS
24HR 20.2N 66.4W 65KTS
36HR 20.5N 68.0W 70KTS
48HR 21.0N 70.1W 75KTS
72HR 21.5N 73.7W 85KTS
96HR 22.0N 78.0W 90KTS...NORTHERN CUBA
120HR 22.5N 83.0W 90KTS...SOUTHWESTERN CUBA
Powell
...Chris moving toward northeastern Caribbean islands...
Although these forecasts appear statistically reliable, always first consult and consider official products released by the National Hurricane Center. This forecast is not associated with any other professional or non-professional source of information except nencweather.com
Northerly shear continues to impact a weak center of circulation associated with a newly developed tropical storm entering the northern Lesser Antilles. Outflow appears healthy in the southern half; however, shear from a mid-level anticyclonic flow to the northwest of the storm is restricting outflow to the north. Nonetheless, vertical shear has decreased to around 10kts, and Chris should have an opportunity to strengthen some over the next few days. SHIPS brings the storm to 56kts in 120 hours. A trough to the west of the storm around 70W is expected to move westward, allowing for ridging to build westward and prevent Chris from moving northward into the weakness currently in place. Model guidance has shifted to the left over the last 24 hours in response to the building ridge, and 18Z global models and GFDL from 12Z show a gradual left turn to due west around 36 hours. Global models do not maintain the storm; however, the overall appearance of Chris--mainly the outflow--looks better than yesterday, and the center of the storm may become better organized in the meantime. The forecast keeps Chris as a tropical storm, also given the possibility of land interaction. Based on aircraft data, initial intensity is 40kts.
INIT 17.1N 61.3W 40KTS
12HR 18.1N 62.9W 45KTS
24HR 19.3N 64.6W 45KTS
36HR 19.7N 67.0W 50KTS
48HR 20.0N 69.2W 50KTS
72HR 20.5N 73.0W 55KTS
96HR 21.1N 76.5W 50KTS...INLAND OVER CUBA
120HR 22.0N 80.0W 45KTS...INLAND
Powell