...A subtropical storm has formed off the southern coast of Georgia...
Although these forecasts are statistically reliable, always first consult and consider official products released by the National Hurricane Center. This forecast is not associated with any other professional or non-professional source of information except nencweather.com
Microwave composites over the day suggest that the low pressure system off of the southern coast of Georgia has become subtropical, showing a bit warmer upper air environment near the center of the low than the surrounding area. In contrast, RECON measured little temperature gradient, measuring a temperature nearly uniform around 20C. Given the proximity of the center to the Gulf Stream, this temperature may increase a little, but waters remain too cool for any significant intensification. Minimum pressure is at 1003mb from the most recent observation. Considering that the strongest winds will occur in convection away from the center, the storm maintains non-tropical features. QuikSCAT from this morning shows relatively calm winds near the low pressure center but rain-contaminated winds of up to 40kts away from the center. A RECON vortex message reported an estimate of 45kts at the surface, so this is the initial intensity.
The storm remains a primarily surface feature, with little stacking beyond the low-levels, so the storm will be subject to shallow steering current for awhile. Shear over top of Andrea will prevent any significant tropical intensification; however, some baroclinic bursts of convection may cause fluctuations in intensity. As stated before, maximum winds will be found away from the circulation center. A very weak northeasterly flow should move the storm very slowly somewhere between westward and southward. Tropical models are not of much help in these types of situations, but the motion for the next couple of days is sure to be very slow. Beyond two days, Andrea will likely succomb to a cool water environment and strong flow aloft and spin out over the ocean, or more quickly if it strikes the Florida coast. Andrea will remain under a strong mid to upper level trough over the Eastern US, and is expected to continue a slow drift. Given motion over the last day or so, the forecast continues a slow southwestward jog.
The storm will not pose an extreme danger, but will cause potentially dangerous surf and a couple of inches in rainfall should it reach shore.
INIT 31.0N 80.0W 45KTS
12HR 30.7N 80.6W 45KTS
24HR 30.5N 80.9W 40KTS
36HR 30.2N 81.0W 35KTS
48HR 30.0N 80.8W 35KTS
72HR 29.7N 80.3W 30KTS...DISSIPATING