Tropical Depression Josephine Forecast 9
11:00AM EDT SAT SEPT 6 2008

...Josephine dissipating...

Although these forecasts are statistically reliable, always first consult and consider official products released by the National Hurricane Center. This forecast is not associated with any amateur or professional source of information except nencweather.com

Satellite imagery indicates that convection has not rebuilt near the circulation center and that the low-level center associated with Tropical Depression Josephine has opened and that the system no longer meets the requirements of a tropical depression. Global models indicate that shear may relax over the future track of the remnant low, but have not yet picked up on regeneration. The forecast shows dissipation in the next couple of days.

INIT 16.4N 37.8W 25KTS...REMNANT LOW
12HR 16.9N 38.9W 25KTS...REMNANT LOW
24HR 17.6N 40.5W 25KTS...REMNANT LOW
36HR 18.4N 42.1W 20KTS...REMNANT LOW
48HR...DISSIPATED

Powell

This is the final forecast issued by Nencweather.com on Josephine, unless regeneration occurs.



Tropical Depression Josephine Forecast 8
11:45PM EDT FRI SEPT 5 2008

...Josephine weakens to a tropical depression...

Although these forecasts are statistically reliable, always first consult and consider official products released by the National Hurricane Center. This forecast is not associated with any amateur or professional source of information except nencweather.com

Josephine has not been able to sustain convection during the day today, and with the exception of an area of convection well to the northwest of the center that has developed tonight, nothing remains of the system except a swirl of low-level clouds. The storm has been destroyed by 20kts or greater of vertical shear, and moving over waters containing less heat content have not helped Josephine generate convection. We often see that such lows in the Atlantic occasionally produce intermittent bursts of convection near the circulation center, and I will wait another 12 hours before potentially classifying this as a remnant low and discontinuing forecasts for the meanwhile. Unfortunately, both QuikSCAT passes today missed the small cyclone, so I will leave intensity at 30kts this evening. If convection can develop near the center overnight, Josephine may maintain that intensity. Otherwise, shear will remain very harsh from the south and southwest for the next two days, and full regeneration is unlikely in that time period. Again, the forecast shows some strengthening late in the period with the possibility that shear may decrease enough for some strengthening--assuming that the low-level center can survive for three to four days until then. The track is an extension of the previous and shows a slight bend in the west late since ridging is forecast to strengthening as the trough moves out of the region.

INIT 16.4N 35.9W 30KTS
12HR 17.0N 37.2W 30KTS
24HR 17.9N 39.2W 30KTS
36HR 18.8N 41.5W 25KTS
48HR 20.1N 43.9W 25KTS
72HR 22.0N 46.5W 30KTS
96HR 23.0N 49.0W 30KTS
120HR 24.0N 52.5W 35KTS

Powell



Tropical Storm Josephine Forecast 7
11:30AM EDT FRI SEPT 5 2008

...Low-level center again exposed...

Although these forecasts are statistically reliable, always first consult and consider official products released by the National Hurricane Center. This forecast is not associated with any amateur or professional source of information except nencweather.com

After some convection this morning, southerly shear continues to take its toll on Josephine, and the low-level center is exposed again. Based on QuikSCAT estimates and the decreasing convection over the last few hours, initial intensity remains 35kts. Josephine will remain in a hostile environment with vertical shear in excess of 20kts over the next few days, but model guidance now finally hints at a more westward motion late in the period as ridging builds in and the trough currently shearing the storm moves a little eastward. SHIPS essentially maintains intensity through the period, and the forecast does so again, but now includes slight strengthening at the end of the period. Convection will likely intermittently develop over the next few days, allowing the low-level center to sustain itself over fairly warm waters.

The track is a bit slower this morning because the storm has moved slower than the previous forecast. Model guidance shows a little bit of an increase in forward speed over the next few days, and the track follows suit. A bit of a westward motion is indicated since large scale models show ridging building into the Central Atlantic in a few days as Ike leaves the region.

INIT 15.7N 34.7W 35KTS
12HR 16.3N 36.0W 35KTS
24HR 17.2N 38.0W 35KTS
36HR 18.4N 40.2W 35KTS
48HR 20.1N 42.8W 35KTS
72HR 22.0N 46.0W 35KTS
96HR 23.5N 48.5W 40KTS
120HR 24.5N 51.5W 45KTS

Powell



Tropical Storm Josephine Forecast 6
12:45AM EDT FRI SEPT 5 2008

...Josephine refuses to give in to shear...

Although these forecasts are statistically reliable, always first consult and consider official products released by the National Hurricane Center. This forecast is not associated with any amateur or professional source of information except nencweather.com

Convection has persisted into the evening, and has again covered part of the center this evening. A QuikSCAT pass and SSD intensity estimates both suggest an intensity between 30 and 35kts. For now, I will give the storm 35kts and maintain a tropical storm until convection ceases to persist near the center for a solid 12 to 24 hour period. 20 to 30kts of vertical shear continue to hammer Josephine from the southwest, and the convection will certainly not develop symmetrically around the center any time soon. However, such storms tend to often develop intermittent pulses of convection and maintain a weak intensity over a weak and shallow low level center. The forecast indicates this and simply maintains intensity through the period.

00Z GFDL and HWRF have moved to the right side of the guidance envelope this evening, with HWRF reaching 25N without ever reaching 45W. A northwestward motion is forecast to continue while Josephine moves into the weakness left in ridging by the trough to the northwest of the storm. However, since Josephine is expected to remain a shallow storm, it will likely move farther south of the HWRF and GFDL solutions. The forecast track is on the left side of the guidance envelope and follows a trajectory similar to the shallow BAM and the 00Z interpolated GFS, keeping Josephine south of 25N through the end of the period.

INIT 15.4N 34.0W 35KTS
12HR 16.1N 35.7W 35KTS
24HR 16.6N 37.1W 35KTS
36HR 17.1N 38.7W 35KTS
48HR 17.9N 40.5W 35KTS
72HR 20.5N 45.0W 35KTS
96HR 22.0N 48.5W 35KTS
120HR 24.0N 52.0W 35KTS

Powell



Tropical Storm Josephine Forecast 5
4:00PM EDT THURS SEPT 4 2008

...Josephine barely a tropical storm...

Although these forecasts are statistically reliable, always first consult and consider official products released by the National Hurricane Center. This forecast is not associated with any amateur or professional source of information except nencweather.com

Visible satellite indicates that southwesterly shear has severely impacted Josephine. QuikSCAT suggests that tropical storm force winds still exist in the convection north of the center, so initial intensity remains 35kts for this forecast. Microwave imagery only indicates poor banding around the center. Josephine will continue northwestward into the weakness in ridging in the eastern Atlantic. The forecast again calls for a northwestward motion through the forecast period, as the intensity fluctuates. Josephine may temporarily become a tropical storm or depression as convection may try to intermittently form near the fully exposed low level center. The track is down the center of the track guidance for 12Z.

INIT 14.6N 32.8W 35KTS
12HR 15.1N 34.8W 35KTS
24HR 15.9N 36.8W 35KTS
36HR 17.1N 38.9W 35KTS
48HR 18.1N 41.0W 35KTS
72HR 19.6N 44.0W 35KTS
96HR 21.2N 47.2W 35KTS
120HR 22.5N 50.0W 35KTS

Powell



Tropical Storm Josephine Forecast 4
11:15PM EDT WED SEPT 3 2008

...Josephine getting hammered by shear...

Although these forecasts are statistically reliable, always first consult and consider official products released by the National Hurricane Center. This forecast is not associated with any amateur or professional source of information except nencweather.com

The opportunity for Josephine to intensify is over. The most recent UW-CIMSS analysis shows 30 to 40kts of vertical shear over Josephine, and infrared imagery tonight clearly shows convection becoming displaced to the northeast of the center. Still, the center remains on the southwestern edge of convection, so the storm has not given up yet. Initial intensity is 45kts. A trough immediately north and west of Josephine has moved southward today, to move itself over the cyclone while the storm moves northwestward beneath the trough. For the most part, guidance weakens Josephine to a tropical depression in two to three days, and the forecast weakens the storm but maintains intensity through the end of the period. We often see these types of storms tenaciously regenerate shear over warm Atlantic waters, and the storm is forecast to remain below 25N for the period, and end up really close to the current location of Hurricane Ike.

Josephine will continue to move northwestward for the next several days as it moves into the weakness in ridging left by the trough that is currently shearing it. A westward motion should turn into west-northwestward and eventually northwestward by 48 hours, but there remains significant spread to the 00Z guidance. It does appear, however, that ridging in the eastern Atlantic will build back westward by the end of the period, and ridging in the central Atlantic will be left somewhat weakened by Ike. The forecast is close to the previous track and is along the model consensus, with the exception of GFS, which maintains a westward track through the period and is only slightly weighted in this track.

INIT 14.0N 30.2W 45KTS
12HR 14.7N 33.0W 45KTS
24HR 15.2N 35.8W 40KTS
36HR 15.9N 38.2W 40KTS
48HR 16.8N 41.0W 35KTS
72HR 18.5N 45.0W 35KTS
96HR 21.0N 48.5W 35KTS
120HR 23.5N 51.5W 35KTS

Powell



Tropical Storm Josephine Forecast 3
11:30AM EDT WED SEPT 3 2008

...Josephine about to run into heavy shear...

Although these forecasts are statistically reliable, always first consult and consider official products released by the National Hurricane Center. This forecast is not associated with any amateur or professional source of information except nencweather.com

Josephine has become better organized this morning; however, outflow is restricted in the northwestern quadrant. Microwave data shows banding around a broad center of circulation. A trough to the northwest of Josephine continues to dig southward, and up to 40kts of vertical shear are already beginning to impact the northern outflow of the storm. Initial intensity is set at 55kts, based on a recent QuikSCAT pass. Josephine appears to disorganized to significantly strengthen over the next day or so, and afterward, shear will become too strong for strengthening. In fact, weakening is forecast after 12 hours as shear begins to impact the core. 12Z SHIPS, HWRF, and GFDL all weaken Josephine to a tropical depression over the eastern Atlantic, and we will likely be left with a storm that struggles to intermittently produce convection but maintains status as a depression or weak tropical storm. Guidance suggests that shear may relax over the storm late in the period as the trough moves away from the storm, but for now, only little change in strength is indicated late.

Josephine has continued westward overnight, but should begin moving west-northwestward in 24 hours or so as the trough continues to eat at mid-level ridging in the eastern Atlantic. GFS remains a far left outlier but within the outside of the forecast envelope. GFDL and HWRF are near each other and the center of the guidance envelope, and the track lies close to these solutions, carrying Josephine northwestward by the end of the period and passing near 20N 45W. It is possible, but not yet certain, that if the trough indeed lifts out of the eastern Atlantic, that ridging could build back in, and whatever is left of the storm would start moving westward again.

INIT 13.8N 29.0W 55KTS
12HR 14.3N 31.6W 55KTS
24HR 15.0N 34.4W 45KTS
36HR 16.2N 37.1W 40KTS
48HR 17.5N 40.1W 35KTS
72HR 19.5N 44.5W 30KTS
96HR 21.5N 49.0W 30KTS
120HR 23.5N 53.5W 35KTS

Powell



Tropical Storm Josephine Forecast 2
11:00PM EDT TUES SEPT 2 2008

...Josephine struggling in the far Eastern Atlantic...

Although these forecasts are statistically reliable, always first consult and consider official products released by the National Hurricane Center. This forecast is not associated with any amateur or professional source of information except nencweather.com

Data is fairly limited about Josephine this evening, but it appears that some dry air may have gotten ingested into the storm from a trough to the north. Shear remains moderate, and a trough just to the north and west of the system could have easily fed dry air into it. Josephine has also moved into an area of 20kt vertical shear as opposed to the light shear environment that it experienced this morning. On any account, convection has diminished dramatically this evening, and the storm no longer has the excellent appearance shown this morning. Microwave data shows definite banding near the center, but obviously, the cloud tops surrounding the center are much warmer than before. This was assigned a T2.0/3.0 by SSD, and between 2.0 and 3.0 from the UW-CIMSS algorithm. Out of generosity, I will maintain intensity at 35kts this evening. Guidance is not aggressive with the storm either, and none of the guidance strengthens Josephine beyond tropical storm intensity. Indeed, the storm will have difficulty strengthening if it cannot generate convection well, and the forecast only shows slow strengthening. Josephine will also move into cooler waters as it tracks northwestward over the next several days. Shear is expected to increase in the second half of the period as an upper level low develops near the storm, and weakening is shown as a result.

Track guidance remains divergent, but shows a general northwestward track. The storm will continue northwestward into the weakness left by the trough immediately to the northwest. Josephine has not moved as far northward as the previous forecast indicated, so I must place some weight on the 00Z GFS, which keeps the storm on a trajectory perhaps too far to the south, but quite different from GFDL and HWRF, both which move the storm beyond 20N by the time it reaches 45W. A weaker cyclone would move farther to the south, as indicated by the shallow BAM, and the forecast is shifted a little to the left since a hurricane is no longer shown. Much of the track depends on the evolution of the upper level low near the storm, and ridging could build back westward toward the end of the period.

INIT 13.7N 26.8W 35KTS
12HR 14.3N 29.6W 40KTS
24HR 15.1N 32.2W 45KTS
36HR 16.0N 34.8W 45KTS
48HR 17.0N 37.2W 50KTS
72HR 18.5N 42.0W 55KTS
96HR 20.5N 46.5W 50KTS
120HR 22.0N 51.5W 50KTS

Powell



Tropical Storm Josephine Forecast 1
2:30PM EDT TUES SEPT 2 2008

...Josephine becomes the tenth tropical storm of the season...

Although these forecasts are statistically reliable, always first consult and consider official products released by the National Hurricane Center. This forecast is not associated with any amateur or professional source of information except nencweather.com

METEOSAT satellite imagery this morning indicated that the tropical depression south of the Cape Verde Islands had become well organized and was upgraded to a tropical storm. The latest microwave imagery is from 14Z and 15Z, but it showed a very well-defined center with banding around the circulation. QuikSCAT confirms the closed circulation, and the SSD intensity estimate is 2.5, or 35kts. Otherwise, there is little information with which to initialize, and the initial intensity is 35kts this afternoon. UW CIMSS analysis shows 10kts of vertical shear over Josephine, and conditions appear favorable for development over the next few days. 12Z guidance, however, only shows modest intensification over the next several days, and only finally brings Josephine to hurricane status in a couple of days before weakening it. SHIPS peaks the storm at about 65kts in 48 hours. An upper level low to the north of Josephine is forecast to move westward, and as the storm gains latitude, it will likely experience a higher shear environment in about two days and beyond. The forecast responds by leveling off in intensity as the storm moves over cooler waters. Some of the large scale models are having difficulty resolving the upper level low, but do show a bit of westward motion after the end of the period as ridging builds westward and shear would likely decrease. The forecast responds by a small bit of strengthening late in the period, but this is an educated guess at best right now.

Track guidance is well spread this afternoon. 12Z GFDL takes the storm past 25N , and GFS keeps the storm near 16N or 17N while keeping the storm on a more southerly trajectory through the period. Josephine will move northwestward into a weakness in the Atlantic subtropical ridge left by Ike, and the motion shown is essentially an extrapolation of the current motion until the end of the period. If Josephine becomes stronger, it may move to the right of guidance since upper level steering currents are a bit weaker in the eastern Atlantic. For now, the track assumes that ridging will begin to build back westward as Ike moves into the western Atlantic. This puts the track down the center of the model consensus.

INIT 13.6N 26.3W 35KTS
12HR 14.2N 28.4W 45KTS
24HR 14.9N 30.9W 55KTS
36HR 15.7N 33.5W 65KTS
48HR 17.0N 36.7W 70KTS
72HR 19.3N 41.3W 65KTS
96HR 21.4N 45.5W 65KTS
120HR 22.0N 50.0W 70KTS

Powell