Hurricane Otto Forecast 7
4:00PM EDT SAT OCT 9 2010

...Otto weakens as it moves farther northeastward...

Although these forecasts are statistically reliable, always first consult and consider official products released by the National Hurricane Center. This forecast is not associated with any amateur or professional source of information except nencweather.com

Otto appears to be getting less organized as it accelerates northeastward. The cloud pattern now consists of a large cloud shield downshear of the center, with little deep convection to the south and west of the center. A 1429Z TRMM pass showed a n eye with an open eyewall in the middle levels, and on satellite imagery, the circulation appears tilted toward the northea st with height. The intensity estimate from UW CIMSS is 51kts, and the storm received T3.5/4.0 at 1745Z from SSD. Giving the benefit of the doubt, I will maintain a 65kt hurricane for this forecast, but Otto may well already have weakened to a tr opical storm. Otto will continue to weaken over the next couple days as it makes its transition into an extratropical cyclo ne over cooler waters.

No change is necessary to the track. The hurricane is positioned between an eastward advancing trough and a subtropical rid ge over the eastern Atlantic. Otto is not expected, however, to fully become embedded in mid-latitude zonal flow as an extr atropical cyclone, and the track forecast follows model guidance showing a southward turn around the east side of ridging in three to five days.

TimeLatitudeLongitudeIntensityConfidence
INIT31.9N53.1W65KTS
12HR34.7N46.9W60KTSHigh
24HR38.5N38.9W55KTSHigh
36HR41.9N32.3W50KTSHighEXTRATROPICAL
48HR43.9N28.2W45KTSAverageEXTRATROPICAL
72HR42.5N25.5W40KTSAverageEXTRATROPICAL
96HR39.0N24.5W35KTSAverageEXTRATROPICAL
120HR37.0N24.0W35KTSLowEXTRATROPICAL


Powell



Hurricane Otto Forecast 6
4:45AM EDT SAT OCT 9 2010

...Otto continues northwestward a little stronger...

Although these forecasts are statistically reliable, always first consult and consider official products released by the National Hurricane Center. This forecast is not associated with any amateur or professional source of information except nencweather.com

Satellite based intensity estimates from SSD have increased to T4.5, or 77kts, but estimates from ADT remain near minimal hurricane strength. The deep convection near the center of the hurricane has persisted, and it is likely that Otto had streng thened some on Friday. This evening, the circulation appears to be a bit elongated from southwest to northeast and not well stacked vertically. As such, the initial intensity estimate is set at 70kts. Otto is dealing with rapidly increasing deep layered shear ahead of a mid to upper level trough entering the western Atlantic. As Otto continues to become embedded in the strong southwesterly flow aloft, it will weaken. Otto is expected to become extratropical in two days as it moves over cooler waters.

The track forecast remains the same. Otto will continue northeastward over the next few days as it moves between the approaching trough and along the north side of weakened ridging in the eastern Atlantic. Global models indicate that steering currents will break down in about two days, and that the extratropical low developing from Otto will meander toward the south f or a couple of days in the vicinity of the Azores Islands.

TimeLatitudeLongitudeIntensityConfidence
INIT29.1N58.9W70KTS
12HR31.7N53.8W70KTSHigh
24HR35.1N45.8W65KTSHigh
36HR38.8N38.4W60KTSHigh
48HR42.2N31.7W55KTSAverageEXTRATROPICAL
72HR44.5N26.5W45KTSAverageEXTRATROPICAL
96HR41.5N25.0W35KTSAverageEXTRATROPICAL
120HR39.0N24.0W35KTSLowEXTRATROPICAL


Powell



Hurricane Otto Forecast 5
12:45PM EDT FRI OCT 8 2010

...Otto strengthens into the eighth hurricane of the season...

Although these forecasts are statistically reliable, always first consult and consider official products released by the National Hurricane Center. This forecast is not associated with any amateur or professional source of information except nencweather.com

Otto appears to have strengthened. The cyclone consists of a central dense overcast that is fairly symmetric about the center and a band of deep convection and high cirrus to the east and southeast of the CDO. A 13Z SSMI Sounder pass even showed a small eye-like feature in the center of deep convection with cloud tops as cold as -90C. Dvorak based intensity estimates from SSD and CIMSS are T4.0 and T3.9 respectively; therefore, Otto is upgraded to a hurricane. The hurricane is currently located on the edge of a sharp zonal gradient of deep layered southwesterly shear ahead of a mid to upper level trough in the western Atlantic. Light shear should persist for another 24 hours or so, and some additional intensification is indicated by model guidance. Afterward, shear will decrease, and Otto will move rapidly over cooler waters in a day or two. As such, weakening is forecasted after 24 hours, and Otto should become extratropical within three days.

No significant changes are necessary to the forecast track; although, Otto is moving more quickly than the previous track. The track quickly guides Otto northeastward ahead of the trough and frontal boundary to its west. Otto will round the northern half of a weakened subtropical ridge in the eastern Atlantic. Thus, the extratropical low forming from Otto will turn eastward and slow down in about three days near the Azores.

TimeLatitudeLongitudeIntensityConfidence
INIT26.1N63.8W65KTS
12HR28.2N60.5W70KTSHigh
24HR30.6N56.0W70KTSHigh
36HR33.3N50.3W65KTSHigh
48HR36.2N43.5W60KTSHigh
72HR41.0N28.0W45KTSAverageEXTRATROPICAL
96HR40.0N23.5W40KTSAverageEXTRATROPICAL
120HR38.0N20.0W35KTSLowEXTRATROPICAL


Powell



Tropical Storm Otto Forecast 4
12:45AM EDT FRI OCT 8 2010

...Otto accelerating toward the northeast...

Although these forecasts are statistically reliable, always first consult and consider official products released by the National Hurricane Center. This forecast is not associated with any amateur or professional source of information except nencweather.com

Satellite imagery indicates that Otto has begun to move more quickly toward the northeast this evening. A mid to upper level trough is encroaching from the west, and Otto is moving ahead of an associated frontal boundary located in a weakness in r idging over the western Atlantic. Otto will move around the northwestern side of the ridge as it accelerates ahead of the f ront over the next several days. Model guidance has come into better agreement tonight on how to handle the extratropical l ow that will develop out of Otto in a few days. The current reasoning slows Otto in three to four days and turns it toward the east and southeast around the northern side of ridging near the Azores.

Since the deep portion of the trough and the mid-latitude low is located well to the north of Otto, significant baroclinic enhancement of the tropical storm is not expected. A CIMSS analysis suggests that upper divergence associated with the extratropical low is restricted to north of 30 degrees latitude. Some intensification is possible over the next couple of days, however, as the storm remains over fairly warm waters. Beyond two days, stronger shear should gradually weaken Otto; although, the weakening trend may slow as the cyclone becomes extratropical.

A recent ASCAT pass showed several 40kt readings east of the center extending about 50nm from the center. Satellite intensi ty estimates from CIMSS and SSD support an intensity of 40 to 45kts. Therefore, initial intensity remains 45kts.

TimeLatitudeLongitudeIntensityConfidence
INIT24.1N66.3W45KTS
12HR25.1N64.5W50KTSHigh
24HR27.0N61.4W55KTSHigh
36HR29.2N57.2W60KTSHigh
48HR31.5N51.6W60KTSHigh
72HR37.3N36.6W50KTSAverageEXTRATROPICAL
96HR38.5N26.0W40KTSAverageEXTRATROPICAL
120HR37.0N23.0W35KTSLowEXTRATROPICAL


Powell



Tropical Storm Otto Forecast 3
1:45PM EDT THURS OCT 7 2010

...Otto becomes a tropical cyclone...

Although these forecasts are statistically reliable, always first consult and consider official products released by the National Hurricane Center. This forecast is not associated with any amateur or professional source of information except nencweather.com

AMSU observations have indicated that the warm core in Otto has become strong and deep enough for the system to be classified as a tropical cyclone. However, the wind field remains large for a storm with as little convection as Otto. A well-timed ASCAT pass from 14Z indicates winds of perhaps 30 to 35kts near the center. Dvorak based estimates from SSD and the automated CIMSS scheme do not support a tropical storm. Other satellite based tools from CIMSS suggest intensity between 40 and 45kts. Otto continues to produce intermittent bursts of convection near the center, but is also periodically more anemic--co nsisting of a swirl of low clouds. The initial intensity is set at 45kts for continuity; although, I may be a bit generous. Otto is likely being hindered by dry air in the mid-levels getting entrained into the broad circulation from the northeast of the storm. Models forecast a gradual increase in vertical shear over the next few days as a deep layered trough moves e astward across the Atlantic and enhances a frontal boundary to the west of Otto. A few models bring Otto to hurricane statu s in a couple of days, but the models are inconsistent from run to run. The consensus maintains a tropical storm, and this is the forecast. As the circulation of Otto contracts and as the inflow region of the storm becomes smaller, some intensification may occur.

Guidance is tightly clustered on the forecast track; although the storm has moved little over the past 12 hours. Otto will move northeastward over the next four days--at first slowly, then more quickly as it interacts with the frontal boundary. Otto should become extratropical in about three days. GFS splits the low in four days, with part of the storm moving northward and another part decelerating and moving eastward near the Azores. The forecast is a compromise of the two late in the period.

TimeLatitudeLongitudeIntensityConfidence
INIT23.8N68.2W45KTS
12HR24.4N67.4W50KTSHigh
24HR26.0N65.0W55KTSHigh
36HR28.0N61.7W60KTSHigh
48HR30.4N57.3W60KTSHigh
72HR36.0N44.0W50KTSAverageEXTRATROPICAL
96HR41.0N30.0W40KTSAverageEXTRATROPICAL
120HR42.5N23.0W35KTSLowEXTRATROPICAL


Powell



Subtropical Storm Otto Forecast 2
4:00AM EDT THURS OCT 7 2010

...Aircraft finds cyclone stronger...

Although these forecasts are statistically reliable, always first consult and consider official products released by the National Hurricane Center. This forecast is not associated with any amateur or professional source of information except nencweather.com

An aircraft surveying the low in the southwestern Atlantic detected flight-level winds of 68kts and estimated surface winds of 55 to 60kts near a convective band. As such, the system is upgraded to storm status, and initial intensity is estimated at 55kts. Deep convection remains limited to a single convective band that extends far from the center. The warm core is existent of only a small area between 200mb and 300mb based on AMSU microwave data. Convection has died out and redeveoped intermittently around the band surrounding Otto. The storm is expected to become fully tropical in the next day or so, as a nearby upper level low moves away and dissipates and Otto travels over waters with temperature near 28C to 29C. Much of the new guidance allows for a minimal hurricane, but I will refrain from forecasting such since shear will increase in about 24 hours.

The track forecast is quite simple. A stalled cold front to the west of Otto is about to get kicked eastward by an approaching, and deeper, trough currently located over the northern US. Afterward, Otto will accelerate in front of the trough until the storm becomes extratropical. The current track lies along the consensus.

TimeLatitudeLongitudeIntensityConfidence
INIT23.6N68.0W55KTS
12HR24.3N67.3W55KTSAverage
24HR25.4N65.5W55KTSAverage
36HR27.4N62.6W60KTSAverage
48HR29.5N59.0W60KTSAverage
72HR35.0N47.0W60KTSAverage
96HR42.0N33.0W50KTSAverageEXTRATROPICAL
120HRABSORBED


Powell



Subtropical Depression Seventeen Forecast 1
12:45PM EDT WED OCT 6 2010

...Subtropical system develops east of Bahamas; expected to move out to sea...

Although these forecasts are statistically reliable, always first consult and consider official products released by the National Hurricane Center. This forecast is not associated with any amateur or professional source of information except nencweather.com

The low pressure center east of the Bahamas and north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola has developed into a subtropical cyclone. AMSU analyses suggest that the system currently maintains a weak warm core between 600mb and 300mb. Additionally, the cyclone appears entangled with a weak upper level low to its west-southwest. Deep convection is restricted to the west of the center and expands in a large band around the center. The wind field is rather large based on ship and buoy observations. Such information suggests that the system is a subtropical cyclone. However, a TRMM pass at 1042Z suggested that the deep convection near the center is organizing around banding more central to the core of the cyclone. The low sits over waters with a temperature near 28C, so transition into a tropical cyclone is imminent.

The system is not expected to become very strong. Vertical shear is expected to remain favorable for strengthening early in the period, but if the track verifies, the system will move over cool water and experience greater shear late in the period. The broad mid to upper level circulation also continues to entrain very dry air into the center--currently preventing the development of convection in a dry slot east of the circulation center. A broad upper level anticyclone is located to the southeast of the depression, but divergence aloft the system is poor. Model guidance does not indicate that the anticyclone will position itself over the low. A cold front to the west of the depression will keep the system just ahead of southwesterly flow aloft associated with troughing over the northeastern US. However, the associated mid-latitude low is too far north to baroclinically enhance the depression. As a result, model guidance--and the forecast--allows for 50kts at maximum strength. Only SHIPS allows briefly for a hurricane in three days.

The basic outline of the track forecast is simple. The depression is moving slowly toward the northwest along a weakness in a deep ridge over the central Atlantic. The cyclone will begin to accelerate northeastward in a day or so as a deep trough approaches--further weakening the ridge and guiding the frontal boundary eastward. The track is along the model consensus, and the forecast calls for extratropical transition in about four days.

TimeLatitudeLongitudeIntensityConfidence
INIT23.1N68.3W30KTS
12HR23.9N68.7W30KTSAverage
24HR24.7N68.6W35KTSAverage
36HR25.8N67.0W40KTSAverage
48HR27.3N64.6W45KTSAverage
72HR30.6N57.2W50KTSAverage
96HR35.0N44.5W50KTSAverageEXTRATROPICAL
120HR38.5N32.5W45KTSAverageEXTRATROPICAL


Powell