2007 Forecast Verifications

Errors are shown in nautical miles for track and in knots for intensity. Number of cases for each time period is shown in parentheses. Forecasts made for the extratropical stage, or those made for a time when the cyclone became extratropical, are included in verification statistics; however, forecasts made for dissipating cyclones in the remnant low stage are not verified. Great circle geometry is used for track verification--errors of less than 1nm are possible in the average values listed.

Andrea

Hours NM KTS
0 23.7 (1) 5.0 (1)
12 47.0 (1) 10.0 (1)
24 82.9 (1) 10.0 (1)

Barry

Hours NM KTS
0 17.4 (1) 0 (1)
12 113.2 (1) 10.0 (1)
24 67.8 (1) 0 (1)
36 65.0 (1) 5.0 (1)

Chantal

Hours NM KTS
0 11.0 (3) 1.7 (3)
12 66.3 (2) 5.0 (2)
24 36.8 (2) 2.5 (2)
36 72.3 (1) 5.0 (1)

Dean

Hours NM KTS
0 15.2 (19) 5.3 (19)
12 29.1 (18) 9.4 (18)
24 57.1 (17) 13.2 (17)
36 72.4 (16) 13.8 (16)
48 95.9 (15) 19.3 (15)
72 161.1 (13) 23.9 (13)
96 220.0 (11) 33.2 (11)
120 324.4 (9) 26.7 (9)

Erin

Hours NM KTS
0 8.5 (4) 1.3 (4)
12 41.0 (4) 6.3 (4)
24 62.6 (4) 6.3 (4)
36 97.7 (4) 7.5 (4)
48 124.6 (2) 2.5 (2)

Felix

Hours NM KTS
0 14.9 (9) 5.6 (9)
12 25.7 (8) 21.3 (8)
24 46.2 (7) 22.1 (7)
36 66.2 (6) 23.3 (6)
48 92.6 (5) 48.0 (5)
72 136.7 (3) 50.0 (3)
96 164.1 (1) 25.0 (1)

Gabrielle

Hours NM KTS
0 10.3 (7) 1.4 (7)
12 32.2 (6) 5.8 (6)
24 59.4 (5) 7.0 (5)
36 83.8 (4) 15.0 (4)
48 94.0 (3) 18.3 (3)
72 223.5 (1) 15.0 (1)

Humberto

Hours NM KTS
0 6.5 (4) 6.3 (4)
12 34.0 (3) 16.7 (3)
24 90.2 (2) 2.5 (2)

Ingrid

Hours NM KTS
0 20.2 (9) 1.1 (9)
12 30.5 (8) 3.8 (8)
24 54.7 (7) 4.3 (7)
36 93.2 (6) 6.7 (6)
48 131.5 (5) 11.0 (5)
72 159.2 (3) 18.3 (3)
96 218.0 (1) 40.0 (1)

Ten

Hours NM KTS
0 9.2 (2) 2.5 (2)
12 39.2 (1) 15.0 (1)

Jerry

Hours NM KTS
0 25.5 (3) 0 (3)
12 39.7 (2) 5.0 (2)
24 43.0 (1) 10.0 (1)

Karen

Hours NM KTS
0 15.4 (8) 3.1 (8)
12 76.2 (7) 10.7 (7)
24 85.1 (6) 14.2 (6)
36 87.5 (5) 13.0 (5)
48 109.9 (4) 23.8 (4)
72 168.6 (2) 40.0 (2)

Lorenzo

Hours NM KTS
0 16.6 (7) 5.0 (7)
12 41.3 (6) 20.0 (6)
24 71.7 (4) 25.0 (4)
36 73.5 (3) 13.3 (3)

Melissa

Hours NM KTS
0 63.7 (6) 3.3 (6)
12 89.3 (4) 5.0 (4)
24 121.4 (4) 3.8 (4)
36 103.4 (2) 5.0 (2)
48 137.4 (1) 0 (1)

Fifteen

Hours NM KTS
0 20.9 (3) 1.7 (3)
12 41.8 (1) 5.0 (1)

Noel

Hours NM KTS
0 20.1 (11) 3.2 (11)
12 58.7 (11) 8.2 (11)
24 88.9 (11) 7.3 (11)
36 116.1 (11) 7.7 (11)
48 141.6 (10) 8.0 (10)
72 200.0 (9) 8.8 (9)
96 193.8 (7) 10.7 (7)
120 172.8 (5) 13.0 (5)

Olga

Hours NM KTS
0 5.7 (2) 2.5 (2)
12 96.6 (1) 0 (1)

2007

Hours NM NHC 2007* 5-Year Average** NHC 5-Year** KTS NHC 2007 5-Year Average NHC 5-Year
12 44.8 (84) 32.8 (177) 44.5 (622) 35 (1852) 10.1 (84) 8.1 (177) 6.6 (637) 6.4 (1852)
24 68.5 (72) 51.2 (145) 72.5 (596) 61 (1686) 10.8 (72) 11.0 (145) 10.2 (605) 9.8 (1686)
36 86.8 (59) 70.7 (116) 103.1 (552) 86 (1519) 11.9 (59) 14.0 (116) 13.6 (540) 12.0 (1519)
48 113.0 (45) 91.9 (93) 131.8 (501) 112 (1362) 18.2 (45) 17.9 (93) 14.8 (513) 14.1 (1362)
72 172.3 (31) 146.0 (62) 183.3 (419) 162 (1100) 22.2 (31) 23.5 (62) 18.5 (415) 18.3 (1100)
96 207.9 (20) 167.2 (39) 243.7 (265) 221 (885) 25.3 (20) 28.6 (39) 21.5 (279) 19.8 (885)
120 270.3 (14) 258.4 (23) 324.3 (199) 290 (723) 21.8 (14) 30.0 (23) 22.9 (210) 21.8 (723)

Average initial (Time = 0hr) track error for 2007 was 18.2nm, in 99 cases.

Average initial intensity error for 2007 was 3.4kts, in 99 cases.

*Based on averages of forecast verification statistics from the 2007 Forecast Verification Report released by the National Hurricane Center.

**5-Year average from 2002 to 2006.